GOLD H4 Timeframe: Based on the GOLD H4 timeframe chart, it appears that the price movement previously experienced a very strong impulsive phase, forming a significant peak in the 5,590s. After reaching this level, the price experienced aggressive selling pressure and formed a sharp correction, dropping to near the 4,450–4,500 area. This pattern indicates a large distribution after a fairly long markup phase since mid-January. Looking at the current price structure, GOLD is currently moving in a bearish consolidation phase after failing to maintain further upward momentum. The price is currently around 4,875, slightly below the medium-term moving average (blue line) and still relatively close to the longer-term moving average (red line). This position indicates that short-term momentum is starting to weaken, while the intermediate trend has not yet fully turned strongly bearish, as the long-term moving average is still trending upward, although it is starting to slope downward. The nearest resistance area is seen around 4,907–4,950. This level previously served as a price reaction area and is now a fairly valid supply zone. If the price is able to break through and hold above this area, there is still potential for a rebound towards 5,017 or even 5,117. However, as long as the price remains below this resistance, selling pressure will dominate in the short term.
On the other hand, a key support area is located around 4,856–4,868, which previously served as a rebound point after a sharp correction. If this level is broken with a strong bearish candle, a further decline towards 4,654 or even 4,577 becomes a reasonable scenario. The next major support area is around 4,450, which was a significant low after the previous extreme decline. The lower high structure that has been forming since early February indicates that buyers have not been able to regain full dominance. Each increase tends to be stalled at a level lower than the previous peak. This is a characteristic of the distribution phase or the beginning of a medium-term downtrend. However, as long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (red line), the possibility of a wide sideways movement or the formation of a base remains possible. The volatility that occurred from late January to early February indicates significant fundamental or sentimental pressure that is triggering extreme movements. After this phase, the market appears more stable but tends to lose its previously very strong bullish momentum. Overall, the short-term bias is bearish as long as the price remains below the 4,950 area. A further correction towards the next support area is still possible. However, in the medium term, the trend will not completely turn bearish as long as the price does not consistently break through and remain below 4,650. Traders can monitor price reactions at nearby support and resistance areas to confirm the next direction, while also anticipating potential false breakouts, given gold's volatile nature on the H4 timeframe.
