FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Hello traders, D1 chart - trading instrument GOLD. We are already well into March, and it's clear that the price has calmed down after the previous rallies. The overall long-term uptrend is still intact, with a strong predisposition for further growth. However, at the moment, there are good chances for a decline towards the ascending line that can be drawn from below. For many days, the price has been consolidating above the horizontal support level of 5091. I assumed that this level would likely be broken downwards, as if the intention was to move upwards when the price was above this level, it would have happened by now. And indeed, the level did not hold, and it was broken downwards. Most likely, more buyers had accumulated, leading to this breakout. Since the price has settled below, the priority for now is downwards on smaller timeframes. The position of the CCI indicator is concerning, as it is ready to move upwards from the lower zone. However, historical data shows that even when this indicator was in these zones before, the price could move significantly regardless of its position. A temporary cancellation of the bearish scenario would be a reversal above the 5091 level, making a move towards the peaks relevant again.

H4 chart. Here, we can see that the previous ascending wave structure has been broken, and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. Additionally, there is a descending triangle pattern visible. The base level of this pattern is at 4991, and currently, the price is reluctant to break below it. If it breaks downwards, besides the descending triangle pattern, the so-called third wave will follow. By applying a Fibonacci extension on the first wave, the target of the anticipated decline can be seen at the 161.8 level on this grid. Interestingly, the ascending line drawn on the daily chart is located precisely in this area, confirming the accuracy of the target in case the bearish scenario unfolds. The most important event tonight is the decision on the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve.