GOLD Timeframe H1: Based on the GOLD chart on the H1 timeframe, the current price is around 4604.54. Overall, GOLD's movement structure still shows a bullish trend, although in the last few candles, the price has experienced a correction and consolidation after recording a fairly strong increase. The movement since around August 19th has shown a significant change in character. Previously, the price was moving relatively low in the 4330–4400 area, then experienced a bullish impulse that led GOLD to break through several key resistance levels and reach the 4685–4695 area. After reaching this area, upward momentum began to wane, and the price entered a distribution or consolidation phase in the upper area. From a moving average perspective, the position of the 100-day moving average (MA), shown by the blue line, provides a fairly positive picture. The 100-day moving average (MA) is currently around the 4590–4600 area and is still sloping upward. The price is also still around or slightly above the 100-day moving average (MA). This condition indicates that the intermediate trend on the H1 timeframe is still receiving support from buyers. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA), the correction can still be categorized as a correction within a bullish trend, not a full-blown trend reversal. This is further confirmed by the position of the 200-day moving average (MA), shown by the red line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the current price, approximately in the 4530-4550 area, and its slope is still increasing. The 100-day moving average (MA) position above the 200-day moving average (MA) represents a healthy bullish structure. Furthermore, the distance between the two moving averages is quite clear, indicating that the uptrend that has been forming since mid-August has relatively strong momentum. Therefore, technically, GOLD has not shown any signs of a major bearish reversal as long as the 100-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average. However, short-term conditions require attention, as the price is no longer moving upward impulsively. After reaching the 4685-4695 area, the price experienced several rejections and then fell towards the 4600 area. This decline indicates that sellers are beginning to exert pressure on the upper resistance area. However, as long as this pressure is unable to consistently push prices below the 100-day moving average (MA) and the horizontal support at 4604.54, sellers cannot be said to have taken over the market structure. The 4604.54 level is a crucial area on the current chart. This horizontal line acts as support and is very close to the 100-day moving average (MA). The combination of horizontal support and moving averages makes this area a confluence zone worth monitoring. If the price is able to hold above 4604.54 and form a bullish rejection, the chance of a rebound towards the upper resistance level will increase. Conversely, if the H1 candlestick breaks through 4604.54 strongly and closes below it, the next focus should be on the 100-day moving average (MA), which is located slightly below that level. Consistent penetration of the 100-day moving average (MA) would signal a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
The main resistance area is located at 4695.34. This level is the highest horizontal resistance level visible on the chart and is located slightly above the previous peak. The 4685–4695 area can be considered a strong resistance zone because the price has experienced selling pressure several times before approaching this area. If GOLD rises again and manages to break through 4695.34 with a solid H1 candlestick, this would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. The breakout will be more valid if the price is able to retest the 4695 area and establish it as new support. Before reaching 4695, the price must also confront the swing high area around 4650–4660. Although this level is not one of the major horizontal lines depicted on the chart, the price structure indicates that this area has been a reaction point several times. Therefore, if GOLD is able to hold above 4604.54, the 4650–4660 area could become intermediate resistance that must be broken before buyers can retest 4695.34. Rejection around 4650–4660 would indicate that buyers are still not strong enough to test major resistance. If the 4604.54 support level fails to hold, a deeper correction scenario is emerging. The next horizontal support level is at 4508.20. The distance between 4604.54 and 4508.20 is quite large, so a breakout of the first support level has the potential to trigger a more significant correction. The 4508.20 area is also interesting because it is below the 200-day moving average (MA). If the price falls to this area, the correction will no longer be a simple pullback against the 100-day moving average (MA), but will begin to test a larger bullish structure. Below 4508.20 lies support at 4449.41. This level was part of a consolidation structure before the strong rally on August 19–21. Therefore, 4449.41 could become a significant demand area if selling pressure persists. Next lies support at 4405.95, which was also a price reaction area before the previous bullish impulse. A decline towards the 4405.95 area would indicate that much of the gains made after August 19 have been reversed. The next major support level is at 4310.45. This level represents a key lower boundary on the chart. As long as the price remains well above this level, the medium-term bullish structure still has considerable room to expand. However, if a sharp decline breaks through 4310.45, the bullish structure seen since mid-August will be seriously damaged. In terms of price structure, the most interesting aspect is that GOLD has continued to form a series of higher highs and higher lows since its breakout on August 19th. The rise from the 4330–4400 area to 4508, then 4600, and then 4685 indicates strong buyer dominance. Consolidation near the peak does not automatically indicate a bearish reversal. In fact, in a strong trend, consolidation near the high can be an accumulation phase before the next breakout. Therefore, primary attention should be paid to whether the price is able to maintain the higher low around 4604 or whether it begins to form lower lows below that area. Technically, the bullish scenario will become more attractive if GOLD can hold above 4604.54, then break through the 4650–4660 area and ultimately test 4695.34. A valid breakout above 4695.34 will confirm that the uptrend is regaining momentum. Conversely, if the price loses 4604.54 and then breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA), the risk of a correction towards 4508.20 will increase. If the 200-day moving average (MA) is also broken, the bullish H1 structure will need to be re-evaluated as bearish pressure has begun to enter the intermediate trend area.
