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Forex Analysis:::2009-05-11T07:00:00

EUR/USD - forecast for 11.05.09

Good time of day. Let us see what we\'ve got from Friday 08.05.09 and what are the changes with the EUR\\USD pair. The trading session started with the pair\'s opening value at 1.3385, and the first part of Asian deals came in favor of dollar. However with the European session beginning as well as before the end of the trading day and week, the single currency acted proactively again and rose versus dollar by 250 pips (open 1.3385, close 1.3635), marking a session high around 1.3650, where the resistance level of 25.03.09 is launched. The pair was successful to break through the resistance levels of 1.3517 and then 1.3578, that made possible to reach the level of 1.3650, increasing the investors\' appetite for risk. The volatility rate stood at 309 points (low 1.3341, high 1.3650). The next strong resistance rate, which is able to prevent growth of the pair will be 1.3737 - maximum from 19.03.09, a break through of this range and closing above it, would clear the way to 1.3966-98, 1.4149.

Speaking about essential data, revealed on Friday, worth mentioning about Germany\'s positive trade balance, which was stable in March 2009 on an annual adjusted basis compared to February 2009 and amounted to 8,9 billion Euro. Besides, a bending moment was exports data from Germany, export stood at 66, 4 billion Euro, rising from February\'s indicator by 0,7%, and the import gained by 0,8% - to 57,6 billion Euro.

From the technical image we can point out the following. The pair closed above the 35 th figure level and quotes around 36, which signals a long term upside bull trend. At present, the pair is trading at these levels, a weakening is not predicted in the nearest time. Also we can witness that pair managed to close above the 200-day exponential moving average at the afternoon graph, that allows us to choose the European currency. The EUR/USD trading instrument succeeded to wallop the upper bound of upward trend from 24.04.09 in the range of 1.3517, from now on, we will consider that rate as a support level in case of dollar correction.

Today there are no important data releases, as economic calendar for Monday is empty.

Recommendations for today (short term trading):

EUR/USD - forecast for 11.05.09

Buy the pair at a 1-hour timeframe closing value above 1.3442 with a target level – T/P 1.3500 and S/L 1.3408.

Sell the pair at a 1-hour timeframe closing value below 1.3352, with a target level – T/P 1.3310-1.3303, and S/L 1.3394.

Analyst M.A. Magdalinin

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