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Economic Calendar

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Tuesday, 28 September
2021-09-28
GfK Consumer Climate (Oct)

The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.

Previous
-1.1
Forecast
-1.6
Current
0.3
2021-09-28
30-y Bond Auction (Sep)

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

Previous
0.972%;
2.41
Forecast
-
Current
1.332%;
2.05
Soon...
2021-09-28
Goods Trade Balance (Aug)

Since July 2015, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis has started publishing preliminary estimate of goods trade balance. This release will be 4-7 earlier than trade balance data. Growth in the reading favors the US dollar.

Previous
-86.4
Forecast
-87.4
Current
-
2021-09-28
Wholesale Inventories (Aug)

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Previous
0.6%
Forecast
0.8%
Current
-
2021-09-28
House Price Index (Jul)

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

Previous
1.6%
Forecast
1.5%
Current
-
2021-09-28
Case-Shiller 20 City (Jul)

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.

Previous
19.1%
Forecast
20.1%
Current
-
2021-09-28
FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

Charles L. Evans is the ninth President and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In that capacity, he serves on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy-making body.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-28
Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

Previous
113.8
Forecast
115.2
Current
-
2021-09-28
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Previous
9
Forecast
12
Current
-
2021-09-28
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Fed Chair Feb 2018 - Feb 2022. Fed Governor May 2012 - Jan 2028. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility.

As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-28
Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks

Janet Yellen a leading American economist, served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2010 until becoming the first woman to become chair of the board in 2014. Some performances Yellen allow quite clearly form a clear picture of the future actions of the Fed. Her speeches are especially important before the next meeting of the FOMC.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-28
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018.

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-28
BRC Shop Price Index (Sep)

Change in the price of goods purchased at BRC-member retail stores.

Leads the government-released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, but has a narrower scope as it only includes goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. This data is usually released 1 day before the Bank of England interest rate decision. Full reports are only available to BRC subscribers.

Previous
-0.8%
Forecast
-
Current
-
Wednesday, 29 September
2021-09-29
Import Price Index (Aug)

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Previous
2.2% m/m;
15.0% y/y
Forecast
0.8%;
16.1%
Current
-
2021-09-29
CPI (Sep)

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

Previous
3.3%
Forecast
3.5%
Current
-
2021-09-29
ZEW-CS Survey (Economic Expectations) (Sep)

The ZEW-CS Indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS). The indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.

Previous
-7.8
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
M4 Money Supply (Aug)

M4 is referred to as "broad money" or simply "the money supply". It reflects cash outside banks (i.e. in circulation with the public and non-bank firms) + private-sector retail bank and building society deposits + Private-sector wholesale bank and building society deposits and Certificate of Deposit.

Previous
0.1% m/m;
6.0% y/y
Forecast
0.3%
Current
-
2021-09-29
Mortgage Approvals (Aug)

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.

Previous
75.2K
Forecast
73.0K
Current
-
2021-09-29
Net Lending to Individuals (Aug)

The amount of extra funds that a sector has available to provide for either direct and indirect lending purposes to other similar counter-parts.

Previous
-1.4
Forecast
3.9
Current
-
2021-09-29
10-y Bond Auction (Sep)

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Previous
0.67%;
1.36
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

Previous
-4.0
Forecast
-4.0
Current
-
2021-09-29
10-y Bond Auction (Sep)

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Previous
-0.38%;
1.1
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Industrial Product Price Index (Aug)

Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation.

Previous
-0.4%
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Raw Materials Price Index (Aug)

Measures the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, including resources not produced in Canada. Also known as the Producer Price Index, the RMPI is an early measure of inflation. Although producers may not pass on changes in raw material prices to consumers immediately, the index will record these cost pressures before they reach the end consumer and affect inflation rates. The headline figure is the percentage change in the price index from the previous month and year.

The index includes prices for raw materials like mineral fuels, vegetable products, animal and animal products, wood, ferrous materials, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals.
 

Previous
2.2%
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
SNB Quarterly Bulletin

Tends to have a mild impact because much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessmen.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker.

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Pending Home Sales (Aug)

Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month.

Previous
-1.8% m/m;
-8.5% y/y
Forecast
1.1%;
-6.0%
Current
-
2021-09-29
Crude Oil Inventories (Sep)

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Previous
-3481K
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Fed Chair Feb 2018 - Feb 2022. Fed Governor May 2012 - Jan 2028. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility.

As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018.

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Building Permits (Aug)

The number of new building projects authorized for construction New Zealand . Building Consents, or Building Permits, are issued when a building project has been authorized to begin construction. Since Building Consents serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects Building Permits suggests optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, housing indicators are popular leading indicators due to the multiplier effect that they have on the rest of the economy. The headline is the percentage change in new consents for the month.

Note: When looking deeper into the report it is important to analyze in detail what the type of projects the consents are for, as Building Consents include residential housing as well as 'big-ticket' non-residential buildings and government projects that can create large gyrations in the report month to month.

Previous
2.1%
Forecast
-
Current
-
2021-09-29
Retail Sales (Aug)

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Previous
1.1% m/m;
2.4% y/y
Forecast
-0.3%;
-1.3%
Current
-
2021-09-29
Industrial Production (Aug)

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

Previous
-1.5% m/m;
11.6% y/y
Forecast
-0.5%;
9.5%
Current
-
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