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Economic Calendar
Thursday, 1 May
In any given month, the rate of inflation in a price index like the Consumer Price Index or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) can be thought of as a weighted average, or mean, of the rates of change in the prices of all the goods and services that make up the index. Calculating the trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from fell the most to rose the most, and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are like a skaters best and worst marks thrown out, or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. For the series presented here, 19.4 percent of the weight from the lower tail and 25.4 percent of the weight in the upper tail are trimmed. Those proportions have been chosen, based on historical data, to give the best fit between the trimmed-mean inflation rate and proxies for the true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional excluding food and energy measure as a gauge of core inflation.
Challenger Job Cuts, released by Challenger, Grey & Christmas monthly, provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region. The report is an indicator used by investors to determine the strength of the labor market. A lower than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a higher than expected number as negative
Soon...Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
As the week to week numbers might be very volatile, the four week moving average smooths the weekly data and used for the initial jobless claims metric A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
The Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Construction Spending index measures the change in the total amount spent on construction. The data is subject to large revisions and as such, this report rarely has any market impact.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies.For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response,the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic directionand the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.
The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.
While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector.
If the increase in natural gas inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in natural gas is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as apercentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate for a particular age/sex group is the number of unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of thelabour force for that group.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is an economic event that provides a real-time estimate of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current quarter. It serves as a valuable indicator for analysts, policymakers, and economists looking to gauge the health of the American economy.
Created and maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the GDPNow model utilizes a sophisticated algorithm that processes incoming data from official government sources. These sources include reports on manufacturing, trade, retail sales, housing, and other sectors, which allows the Atlanta Fed to update their GDP growth projections on a frequent basis.
As an essential benchmark for economic performance, the GDPNow forecast can significantly impact financial markets and influence investment decisions. Market participants often use the GDPNow forecast to adjust their expectations regarding monetary policies and various economic outcomes.
The Fed balance sheet is a statement listing the assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve System. Details of the Fed's balance sheet are disclosed by the Fed in a weekly report called "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances."
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks is the amount of money that depository institutions maintain in their accounts at their regional Federal Reserve Banks.
Building Consents (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building consents issued by the government. Building consents are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The jobs/applications ratio measures the ratio between job applications and actual jobs. This is an indicator of the health of employment in the economy. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the JPY, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY.
Monetary Base measures the change in the total amount of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the Bank of Japan. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Foreign Bonds Buying number measures the flow from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The Net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow). A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the JPY, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Balance of payments is a set of accounts recording all economic transactions between the residents of the country and the rest of the world in a given period of time, usually one year. Payments into the country are called credits, payments out of the country are called debits. There are three main components of a balance of payments: - current account - capital account - financial account Either a surplus or a deficit can be shown in any of these components. Balance of payments shows strenghts and weaknesses in a country's economy and therefore helps to achieve balanced economic growth. The release of a balance of payments can have a significant effect on the exchange rate of a national currency against other currencies. It is also important to investors of domestic companies that depend on exports. Securities investment, contract basis. Securities investment refers to flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. Bonds include beneficiary certificates but exclude all bills. The Net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow.
Friday, 2 MayThe PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the TWD while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the TWD.
The PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the IDR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the IDR.
The PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the VND , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the VND.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Retail sales data represents total consumer purchase from retail stores. It provides valuable information about consumer spending which makes up the consumption part of GDP. The most volatile components like autos, gas prices and food prices are often removed from the report to show more underlying demand patterns as changes in sales in these categories are frequently a result of price changes. It is not adjusted for inflation. Spending on services is not included. Rising retail sales indicate stronger economic growth. However, if the increase is larger than forecast, it may be inflationary. Estimates of turnover are based on a survey of about 7000 retail and selected service businesses (covering 20000 outlets). All large businesses are included in the survey, while a sample of about 4400 smaller businesses is selected. The large business contribution of approximately 54% of the total estimate ensures a highly reliable Australian total turnover estimate.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the IDR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the IDR.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the IDR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the IDR.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the IDR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the IDR.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. The PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for the following five indicators and their weight: New orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25 , Employment - 0.2, Suppliers delivery times - 0.15 and Stock of items purchased - 0.1 with the Delivery times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. When PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. The individual survey indexes have been seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of Census X-11 programme. The seasonally adjusted series are then used to calculate the seasonally adjusted PMI. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the INR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the INR.
The definition for an unemployed person is: Persons (16-65 years) who were available for work (except for temporary illness) but did not work during the survey week, and who made specific efforts to find a job within the previous 4 weeks by going to an employment agency, by applying directly to an employer, by answering a job ad, or being on a union or professional register. The percentagenumber is calculated unemployed / (employed + unemployed).
The definition for an unemployed person is: Persons (16-65 years) who were available for work (except for temporary illness) but did not work during the survey week, and who made specific efforts to find a job within the previous 4 weeks by going to an employment agency, by applying directly to an employer, by answering a job ad, or being on a union or professional register. The percentagenumber is calculated unemployed / (employed + unemployed).
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SEK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SEK.
The French Government Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the government's income and expenditure for the year-to-date. A negative number indicates a budget deficit, while a positive number indicates a surplus.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Purchasing managers are asked a series of questions that measure whether business conditions have improved, deteriorated or remained unchanged from the previous month.results are calculated as diffusion indices. These are calculated as the percentage of respondents indicating an improvement, plus an addition of half the percentage of respondents indicating no change. Diffusion indices differ from percentage balances in that they do not effectively exclude the findings of those who reported no change. An index reading of 100 indicates that all informants expect an increase and a score of zero indicates that all informants expect a decrease. A score of 50 shows that informants are either equally divided between those expecting an increase and those expecting a decrease or that all respondents report no change in activity in comparison with theprevious month.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union (EU), on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU Member States. HICP is a measure of prices used by the Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.
