FX.co ★ The technical analysis of the EUR/USD for 13.07 – 17.07

Day timeframe

Ishimoku:

In reference to the pattern, we can witness the trend change-over and possible start-up of the downward motion. For the past week the picture had not changed significantly. The price stood below Tenkan-sen and Kidjun-sen. Tenkan-sen turned its direction to the downside, increasing the confidence in the downward trend perspectives. The price did not manage to remain above the Kidjun-sen line and returned to the zone below this line. Kidjun-sen also turned out and now is down-directed approving that the most probable now is the descending movement. Tenkan-sen and Kidjun-sen crossed, thus, forming the purchase signal which may cancel in the nearest term. On the whole, there had shaped an uncertain situation. For the sales it is necessary to wait for sale signal. For the purchase — the price fix-up above Kidjun-sen. Presently, the support levels are - Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines (Ishimoku cloud bounds), resistance - Tenkan-sen and Kidjun-sen. Currently, the downside motion is most probable with the target of upper Ishimoku cloud bound. The Ishimoku cloud continues its rising movement, although it began to narrow, that points at possible end of ascending note. Chinkou Span is below the price graph, that means there is downturn direction.

Bollinger Bands:

This indicator shows the sidewards movement. The lines narrowed and down-directed. As we can see, the price jumped from the bottom Bollinger band, approving a possible rising trend motion and stood above the middle line signaling a possible price move to the upper bound. The descending tendency can be considered if the Bollinger bands are down-directed. In the nearest future is seen the sideward movement within the Bollinger bands range, in case of its break through may start a trend behavior. Consiquently, it is better to wait for such outbreak to determine the tendency direction.

MACD:

This indicator demonstrates the descending movement. For more confidence in the downward trend it is reqiured to wait for this signal approvement, for example, in the form of Bollinger bands reversal. For now, the most probable events scenario — is the dowside trend continuation.

Trading recommendations:

The sidewards move continuation is possible with the EUR/USD currency pair. So, it is recommended to start trading in case of a break through of the upper and bottom Bollinger band and Ishimoku movement approval. In case of remove from the upper or bottom Bollinger band you can trade amid the jump off with the first target — the middle Bollinger band and further to the opposite bound.

The picture clarification

Ishimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen — red line
Kidjun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines

MACD indicator:

The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window

Have a good trading

July 13, 2009
Stanislav Polianskiy