On Friday, by the trading week closing EUR/USD currency pair behaved itself rather calm, and almost all day rolled on in the sideways movement. The deals closed with a small advantage in favour of U.S.dollar. Mostly, it was due to the long positions fixation made by major players. In the second part of the session the pair refreshed a new local minimum at 1.4065. The decline was accomponied with the support level around 1.4060, from which the pair jumped back to the opening level. The trades closed at the bottom of 41st big figure around 1.4103. Totally, the greenback rallied against the Euro by 46 points, the volatility rate reached 87 points.
Friday was not oversaturated with big fundamental data volume. From the Eurozone we witnessed the trade balance release, which rose to 0.80 billion dollars versus the last period reading of 0.70 billion dollars, however, this information was responded negatively by the market participants, as there was expected a trade balance increase to 1.20 billion dollars. Amid this, the pair lowered to the range of 1.4095 testing the first resistance level there.
Afterwards, in the American trading session was published the building permits report showing the result of 0.56M, the experts were looking for a growth to 0.52M. Also the new building activity strengthened from 0.53M to 0.58M. The U.S. fundamental data added a piece of positive mood to the trading, allowing the pair to bounce from the session lows.
Concerning the technical pattern, hereby worth pointing out the upper bound of rising price channel of July 08, which overcame the bears\' pressue, booming the pair upwards. The next resistance level may turn out to be the upper bound of rising price channel of July 09, which is now around 1.4216.
The resistance stood at: 1.4182, 1.4195, 1.4245
The support: 1.4147, 1.4098, 1.4064.
The Bollinger bands are still demonstrating the ascending trend and the volatility rate tick up. The middle bound is at 1.4137, presently coming in as a dynamic support.
The mid-term scenario is shaping up in favour of the European currency now, and probably, this week we will see the other local highs to the 43d big figure zone. A correction with a long-term sideward movement is also possible.
For today is scheduled the Germany producer price index and the U.S. leading index report.
I recommend you to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4203 with the target – T/P 1.4266 and S/L 1.4149.
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4140 with the target – T/P 1.4084 and S/L 1.4185.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
