On Friday, the trading day of the EUR/USD currency pair showed the long positions fixation by major players. Till the American session opening the pair had flat sideward movement within the range 1.4328-1.4379. During the European deals first part the pair fell due to Eurozone weak fundamental data. Having pushed off from the support level 1.4328, the European currency turned out to be in the limelight of major investors, allowing the pair to fix up the local minimum at 1.4391 and almost touching the 44 big figure bottom. By the second part of the American deals the US dollar strengthened slightly amid the US weak microeconomic statistics, closing the trading session for its own benefit around 1.4305. On the whole, the single currency had lost 39 points against the greenback.
The Eurozone customers confidence decreased by 1 point to -22.0 versus the economic forecasts, looking for lowering to -21.0. The last period reading was -23.0. A moderate decline of this index signals about positive growth of consumer confidence in the current economic conditions.
The US fundamental statistics did not managed to gladden the players. The PCE price index, measuring the inflation growth, succeeded to demonstrate an improvement only by 0.10% against the experts predictions waiting for this indicator increase by 0.20%. Personal expenditure of the Americans also fell by 0.20% versus the previous period result of 0.60% tick up. The USA citizens earnings remained unchanged, not showing any dynamics — 0.00%, compared to the last period. The only positive index on Friday appeared to be Michigan University sentiment index, which ticked up to 65.7 versus the preceding estimate of 63.2.
The technical pattern. On Friday, the pair did not managed to refresh the local minimum, which was fixed a day earlier at 1.4408. The Euro growth was restrained by the bottom line of the rising price channel formed on May, 18, which is around the 43 big figure bottom now. The drop was also restrained by 200-day exponential moving average, it is near the level mentioned above.
The Bollinger bands demonstrate a slight reversal of the rising trend, so in the short term most likely that we will witness the correctional movement of the EUR/USD currency pair.
The general trend remains on the upside, and possibly, we will see the testings of early August highs around 1.4448.
Today, I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4322 with the target – T/P 1.4378 and S/L 1.4287
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4257 with the target – T/P 1.4168 and S/L 1.4299.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
