On Thursday, EUR/USD trading was under the dominion of fundamentalists. All movement was going on the basis of statistics difference. In the first part of the European trading session the European currency was rallying steadily. At the beginning was witnessed the 200-day exponential moving average testing, which stood at 1.4276, in the same range was the correctional Fibo level 38.2%. The testing turned out to be successful and this zone break through allowed the pair to rise to a new local maximum around 43 big figure.
A slight arching near 1.4303 was promted by the players expectations of Eurozone interest rate decision. Prior to the publication the pair fixed an increase at 1.4350, touching the upper bound of the rising price channel. The European currency slump was related to dissappointing US data, which set up the general pace, lowering the pair below the opening level, giving the bears a chance to renew the local minimum at 1.4236. On the whole, the US dollar strengthened by 8 points against the Euro.
The Eurozone retail sales fell to -0.2% entering the negative zone again. The last period reading was 0.00%. The experts were predicting a growth to 0.30%. The Eurozone key interest rate remained unchanged at 1.00%, coming in line with the market participants expectations completely.
The pressure on the market was put by the US jobless claims data, which decreased by 4000, compared to the last period, but this slide was not so significant, as it was expected by the economists. As a result — the European currency fall and, consiquently — dynamic rally of the US dollar. The producer price index ISM demonstrated a tick up to 48.40 versus the last period, which was at 46.40. Worth noticing that currently, is seen the trend of «right» market respond to the fundamental statistics. Any positive data used to stimulate a sharp single currency advancement, but now the most part of privileges can be related to the greenback.
The technical pattern becomes some kind of nervous. Yesterday\'s pair lowering managed to overcome the bottom line of the up-going price channel around 1.4282, returning the pair to «secondary» short term rising channel. Presently, the pair is been testing its upper bound. The Bollinger bands decrease its liquidity rate steadily, narrowing the trading channels.
Today, all market participants will follow the fundamental statistics of the USA, as it appears to be the key factor of further market movement in the next week.
Today, I recommend you to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4267 with the target – T/P 1.4304 and S/L 1.4237
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4226 with the target – T/P 1.4188 and S/L 1.4257.
Have a good mood and enjoyable weekend.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A. Magdalinin
