Trump advised the Department of Commerce to identify Chinese assets worth US $200 billion, which could be imposed on a 10% import duty. Trump warned China that it would impose a new set of tariffs in response to China's decision to raise customs for US goods worth $ 50 billion (which was the answer to the same US move on Friday). The new round of customs war has scared off investors and pushes capital to safe havens. In the currency market, JPY and CHF gain the most. USD / JPY fell from 110.50 at 109.70. The shallow market could compound changes. The worst position is the AUD, which is worried about the economic condition of China. AUD / USD loses to 0.7385. Gold slightly benefits from an increase in risk aversion. Crude oil remains volatile before the Friday OPEC.
On Tuesday, 19th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Building Permits data form the US. The is again plenty of speeches scheduled during the day from ECB President Mario Draghi and FOMC Member James Bullard.
AUD/USD analysis for 19/06/2018:
The minutes of the June RBA meeting did not bring much new information. According to the RBA, the current monetary policy is in line with the published macroeconomic data. Low rates definitely support the economy. Reducing unemployment and increasing inflation will only be gradual. Recent data confirms forecasts for GDP growth above 3.0%. Inflation will eventually reach 2.0%, in line with the assumed goal.
The increase in the value of the Australian dollar may lead to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. The wage dynamics are low and stable, according to the conducted research, many companies planned to raise wages faster. Consumer spending is less volatile in the second quarter, partly due to warm weather. The situation may improve in the third quarter due to the increase in the minimum wage in Australia.
Investments in infrastructure should support the economy for some time. The Management of the Bank of Australia noticed the loosening of property prices in Sydney and Melbourne, however, they are still much higher than in 2014. Demographic trends were discussed, currently, a strong population growth is taking place. There is a global risk in the form of an exacerbation of the conflict between the US and China.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 0.7445 and 0.7410 and now is heading towards the key daily technical support at the level of 0.7329. The market conditions are oversold, but the very weak momentum is still pointing to the downside. The chances for a bounce before the level of 0.7329 is hit are very low as the bears remain in complete control.
