The most part of the EUR/USD pair movement on Thursday trading took place within the sideward channel 1.4533-1.4588 and gradually extended in the 46 big figure range. The first attempts of growth on the European trading session around 1.4593 were met by insignificant sales at this area, because this level is the important psychological barrier. Sales lowered the euro to the support level of 1.4533, where bulls returned the confidence, and despite the slightly negative fundamental statistics of the Eurozone, nevertheless the pair recovered to the opening level and once again fixed a local maximum 1.4616. The publication of the US macroeconomic statistics was met with the small surge. The pair reached a maximum of 1.4610 and then fell in area 1.4505 during few hours. The pair recovered to acceptable level to end of trading day and closed in favor of the European currency.
The France industrial production is still in the positive zone, but decreased to 0.1 %, despite the experts’ forecasts, which expected growth to 0.5 %, versus the 0.2% strengthening during the same period. The index of the French non-farm salaries reduced even more and stood at -0.7 % versus the last period reading of -0.5 %. I would remind you that this time experts expected this indicator without changes. The only positive part of the Eurozone fundamental data is the France trading balance, which reduced to -1.30B versus the last month negative data around -3.50B. The experts expected more considerable reduction, to-3.90B.
The sharp downfall of the EUR/USD pair was caused by the USA trading balance data publication, which could not justify expectation of major players and moved to the even more negative zone, compared to last period reading -32.00B. The last figures were at a level -27.00B. Another export fall after growth since June can be negatively reflected in the fast American of economy recovery. But the pair drop to the local minimum of the trading day was followed by the unemployment benefit data publication, which decreased by 26000 for the last period and reached the level of 550000 versus the experts forecast, which expected decrease only to 555000. This positive data returned the risks propensity to the major players.
From the technical aspect, there were no any changes. Yesterday\'s internal movement once again proved seriousness of Euro intentions on growth continuation. Every decrease was another possibility to buy. Of course, the Euro growth will be restrained, but within what levels, we will know that a bit later, after today\'s trades closing. Today is Friday and we may see small pullback in favor of the US dollar.
The first and strongest resistance level for euro is at 61.8 % correctional Fibo level which is around 1.4620. The levels 1.4664, 1.4736 go next.
The decrease support levels is around 1.4571, 1.4534, the bound of the bottom-up price channel of August, 13th, and level 1.4449, which is close to the 200-day exponential moving average.
The Bollinger bands are going to continue increase and now the pair is trading on its top range, giving confidence on the further growth.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4623 with the target – T/P 1.4671 and S/L 1.4590
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4567 with the target – T/P 1.4535 and S/L 1.4628.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
