On Monday, the most part of trading the pair was under the bears pressure and steady European currency lowering. Such bear correction was the Friday decline continuation, rather than something more serious. Also it can be related to «empty» microeconomic calendar, which did not manage to put an impact to none of the sides. Pair\'s decrease to the low of 1.4615, and than sharp Euro recovery against the US dollar signals that the bulls still have enough force, and each pair\'s beneficial downturn is considered as a good zone for long term positions opening in a mid term. During three hours the pair bounced back all losses during the Asian and European sessions. The trading day closed with a slight US dollar advantage, which succeded to gain 25 points versus the European currency. The trading volume was at rather good level.
As it was mentioned above, the fundamental data absence caused such movement in the market. Worth mentioning is the US leading index, which dropped from 0.9% to 0.6%, did not come in line with the experts forecasts waiting for the index to 0.8%.
To one of the pair weakening factors in the first part of the day can be related the negative stock indexes data, pulling down the risky currencies.
Also can be pointed out some IMF comments surely saying that the measures for overcoming the global financial crisis recovered calmness in the markets, and this package will be finished with the steady confidence return.
Concerning the technical pattern worth noticing that the break through of the first support level at 1.4690 led to the pair\'s decrease to the bottom line of rising price channel of August 31. Having tested this range, the pair met resistance from the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.4623.
Presently, the pattern is positive for the single currency growth continuation. MACD indicator switched from the sales zone to the purchase one. The same reversal is shown by the Bollinger bands, which are ready to expand their bounds more any time. The middle bound of the bands includes the first dynamic support level, and with the first signs of the pair\'s downward movement it will arise on its way.
Key resistance levels: 1.4725, 1.4768, 1.4800
Key support levels: 1.4690, 1.4650, 1.4533
Today, I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4729 with the target – T/P 1.4769 and S/L 1.4694
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4669 with the target – T/P 1.4630 and S/L 1.4710.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
