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FX.co ★ US Jobs data supports Fed status quo

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Forex Analysis:::2019-08-02T14:03:38

US Jobs data supports Fed status quo

The US employment data was close to expectations and it certainly has not increased pressure for a further Fed rate cut which is a marginally positive sign for the dollar although trade and risk conditions are going to dominate the forex markets for now. Short-term EUR/USD selling is likely near 1.1100

Headline US non-farm payrolls increased 164,000 for July, in line with consensus forecasts while the June figure was revised lower to 193,000 from 224,000 reported previously.

Manufacturing jobs increased 16,000 for the month with a further small decline in retail employment.

Unemployment held at 3.7% which was in line with market expectations and also unchanged from the previous figure.

Average hourly wages increased 0.3% for the month, above consensus forecasts of 0.2% with an annual increase of 3.2% from 3.1%, although weekly hours declined slightly.

The household survey recorded a small rise in the participation rate with a recorded employment increase of 283,000.

There were no market fireworks on release which is not surprising given that the data was close to consensus forecasts.

Treasuries initially edged higher with the 10-year yield at 1.87%, but selling then emerged while equity futures moved into positive territory and USD/JPY moved back above 107.00.

There were no red flags in the data from the Fed's point of view with a solid labour market and slight increase in earnings growth. At the margin, the data should slightly lessen the case for any further cut in interest rates, which will limit scope for dollar selling. Trade and risk conditions are likely to dominate in the short term following President Trump's announcement of further tariffs on Chinese exports.

EUR/USD is likely to hit further near-term selling interest close to 1.1100.

Analyst InstaForex
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