FX.co ★ Commitment of traders report analysis for USD/JPY 02/14/2020 - Large speculatorrs started to increase long positions on futures JPY, potential for bigger drop on USD/JPY

COT Report:

Based on the latest Commitment of Traders report, I found that there is the increase on the Long positions by Non-Commercials (Large Speculators) by 11,996 contracts and at the same time there is Increase in the short positions by Commercials (Hedgers) by 7,888 contracts, which is indication for potential increase of the JPY currency for itself (USD/JPY downside).

Additionally, I found that there is bullish divergence on the Non-Commercial activity in the past few weeks, which is good indication for the further JPY strength (USD/JPY weakness). There is no extreme reading so far and market is in preparation for the next direction movement.

USD/JPY Daily Chart:

I do expect the breakout of the trading range and downside movement on the USD/JPY towards the levels of 109.24 and 108.40.

Key resistance zone is set at the 110.20