USDJPY like the rest of the fx pairs has started March with weakening dollar. Price is well below February lows and is challenging important long-term support levels after being rejected at long-term resistance.
Green lines - resistance trend lines
Yellow rectangle - long-term horizontal support
USDJPY is most probably still in a correction phase relative to the big upward move that started back in 2011 and topped in 2015. Price retraced 50% of the move and bounced strongly to 118. Since then we see a choppy overlapping structure with a downward bias as price is unable to move above the green trend lines. Price is making lower highs and lower lows. But the lower lows have stopped three times in the 104.50 zone. This is the 4th time we test this support and I believe the chances of breaking below are now higher than any other time. This will most probably push price back towards the 50% retracement level and I believe it is more probable to test also the 61.8% which is the most important Fibonacci level.
