Tuesday ended with the next victory of the European currency. From the first operating hours of the Asian trading session we observed confident bull growth of the EUR/USD pair. Then, to the opening of the European session, the pair fixed in the sideward channel 1.4704-1.4739, showing us small attempts of the further growth. The maximum reached at a level of 1.4764. Totally, the euro grew against the US dollar by 75 points. Strong volatility of the trades was noted by the session beginning.
The small amount of the fundamental data probably also caused the temporary pair sticking in the specified price corridor.
Concerning the Eurozone it is possible to note only the French government budget balance data which one more time decreased in a negative zone and reached -127.60 billion versus 109.00 billion for the last period.
Regarding the USA, I will note the beige book’s retail sales data that rose by +0/4% for the first 5 weeks of September. According to the forecast, sales had to decrease by 0,3 %.
The main falling of the European currency during the Asian trading session was related to the rumors which excited not only the forex market, but also other large raw materials markets. The Independent publication referring to the sources from region of Persian gulf and China in Hong Kong informed that large forces and Near-Eastern oil producers are planning to refuse to denominate the oil prices in the US dollars by 2018 that can lead to strong easing of the US dollar and gold growth. On the other hand, these rumors were denied by the OPEC representatives who explained that negotiations about the dollar refusal in the oil trade are not conducted.
The USA Minister of Finance T. Geithner’s statements also went the European currency good. He declared that this week he will conduct some meetings with legislators concerning financial system modernization.
The stock markets, which continued the confident growth amid the expectations of world economic conjuncture improvement, became a good push for the European currency growth continuation. The raw materials markets also demonstrated confident growth amid the dollar weakening and optimism concerning economic normalization.
Regarding the technical picture, I will notice that there everything is without special changes. Yesterday\'s morning growth of the EUR/USD ended with the general pair fixation and sideward channel trading. Today\'s morning decrease will be considered as good area for the next purchase of the euro against the US dollar. The first support level is around 1.4676, and approaching to it volumes of purchases, probably, will increase. Considering density of an economic calendar for today, especial pressure upon the European currency may be evident, and any negative news can push large investors to thought on the assets transfer in less risk currencies, moreover the ECB will declare the Eurozone interest rate decision tomorrow.
MACD indicator comes closer to a zero level that once again indicates the possible the sideward pair trade for today.
Support levels: 1.4676, 1.4648, 1.4620
Resistance levels: 1.4738, 1.4764, 1.4826
Today, I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4773 with the target – T/P 1.4830 and S/L 1.4741
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4681 with the target – T/P 1.4648 and S/L 1.4720
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin
