In the beginning of July we noted that the weekly resistance at 1.13 was very important and recapturing that level would open the way for a move much higher. Now at 1.16 we are in strong up trend having broken most long-term resistance trend lines and pushing through horizontal resistance levels.
At 1.06 area we can now say that we have completed a major low. Price is now heading towards the next major resistance which is at 1.18-1.1850. Breaking above this resistance level will open the way for a move above 1.25. However a deep pull back towards 1.14-1.15 area is the most probable scenario once we reach 1.18 level as I do not expect to see resistance broken that easily with the first try. Longer-term view is promising for bulls as long as price is above 1.12. Bears last stand is at 1.18 area. They will need to defend this level very strongly.
At 1.18 there is confluence resistance by the Fibonacci retracement and the long-term downward sloping resistance trend line.
