The absence of significant fundamental data causes the market to remain in a state of inactivity. Low volatility today locks several currency pairs in the side channels.
A slight strengthening of the euro was seen only at the beginning of the European session. Growth took place after data showed that Germany's exports in May this year revealed significant growth. This happened against a backdrop of good recovery in global demand since the start of this year.
According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the export of goods in May 2017 rose by 1.4% and reached 107.9 billion euros. Compared with the same period of 2016, German exports rose by 14.1%.
Imports of goods did not lag behind export growth. According to data, in May of this year, imports to Germany grew by 1.2% compared with April and amounted to 87.6 billion euros. Compared to May 2016, the indicator rose by 16.2%.
Overall, Germany's trade surplus in May amounted to 20.3 billion euros, while economists had expected an increase of up to 20.1 billion euros.
An interesting forecast was published today by UBS, as it says that by next year the ECB will buy bonds of approximately €180 billion. UBS believes that the European Central Bank will announce a reduction in the program in September of this year, and by January 2018 it will reduce monthly purchases from 60 to 40 billion euros. In June, according to UBS analysts, this program will end.
If we proceed from this forecast, the demand for the euro in the summer will remain within the maximum range of 1.1450-1.1600. Overcoming this critical range will be possible only after an actual announcement of the completion of the bond purchasing program has been made by the ECB, before the Federal Reserve implements programs aimed at reducing the balance sheet, as well as another hike in interest rates, which is also scheduled for early autumn.
Today the report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that its composite leading indicator remained steady at the level of 100 points in May of this year compared with 100 points in April.
The OECD revised the likelihood of accelerating global growth downwards. Mainly due to uncertain growth prospects for the US, UK and Russia, which have declined. In terms of positive data, we can note good prospects of accelerating growth for the economies of China and France.
