The minutes of the Fed meeting, which was held on July 25-26, did not reveal anything new to investors. It discussed two topics: first, the slowdown in inflation and second, the start of the reduction of the regulator's balance sheet.
The concern of some members of the Fed, that the inflationary pressure is not growing, did not become a surprise for the markets because this has repeatedly been said by such representatives of the "pigeon" party of the Fed, as for example, J. Bullard or C. Evans. But at the meeting, the voices of the hawkish party were heard, which expressed their support for continuing the cycle of raising interest rates, since a pause in this process could be expensive in the future and would result in a rapid increase in inflation.
In addition to the topic of inflation, at the meeting, a proposal was made to announce the beginning of the reduction of the balance sheet, but the opinion was won that it is better to wait until September.
In general, the protocol, we repeat, did not become something out of the ordinary and did not reveal any secrets, but he stressed that the general plans of the regulator, and this is raising rates and reducing the balance, are relevant.
On the wave of the promulgated protocol, the US dollar fell against major currencies but not critically. But the single European currency received the first "black ball". According to the news, M. Draghi will not speak at Jackson Hole at a traditional economic conference, which indicates that the ECB seems to be left wondering if it is worth it in September to announce the termination of the repurchase of assets next year. The latest data on inflation, as well as on Germany's GDP, are alarming and can indeed serve as the basis for leaving everything as it is in the ECB monetary policy or, at the very least, throwing the "bone" in the markets as a new reduction in the volume of monthly assets repurchase, for example, from 60 billion Euro to 40 or even 30 billion euros. But it should be unequivocally said that such a turn of affairs will lead to a strong disappointment and the fall of the euro in the currency markets.
In general, observing the dynamics of the markets, we still hold the view that the overall summer lateral trend will continue until the offensive. There are some local outbursts of activity against the backdrop of geopolitics or the comment of important people from central banks, but this, most likely, will not change the overall situation.
Forecast of the day:
The GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2845. It is likely that today, the pair will remain in the range of 1.2845-1.2965. We consider priority sales on growth from the upper boundary with a local target of 1.2845.
The USD/JPY pair found support at around 109.65, and probably will also be traded in the range of 109.65-110.90. But, most likely, it will generally shift to the upper border of 110.90 of this range.
