This week, the pair reached the monthly short-term fault of August 1.2121-1.2076, which led to an increase in supply and a fall in the exchange rate. The immediate goal of the reduction is the weekly short-term fault of 1.1901-1.1885.
Medium-term plan.
The appearance of a large offer this week was due to the test of the monthly short-term fault of 1.2121-1.2076. The further decrease in the pair will depend on the response to the weekly short-term fault of 1.1901-1.1885. If the fall is halted, then the resumption of growth may again see an update to the annual maximum. To implement the reversal model, you will need to consolidate below the level of 1.1885 at one of the American sessions. It is important to understand that an upward movement is a strong long-term momentum, so the formation of a reversal model can take a long time.
An alternative model will develop in the case of the formation of an accumulation zone within the extremes of the current week. This will allow you to get profitable prices for both buying and selling a tool.
Intraday plan.
Yesterday, the formation of the reversal pattern occurred after the pair was able to break through and consolidate below the NCP 1/2 1.1985-1.1977. This fact allows us to consider the reduction to the weekly short-term fault of 1.1901-1.1885 with a probability of 70%. The test of this zone will determine the further priority. If the zone is broken and closing of one of the American sessions occurs below the level of 1.1855, then this will lead to the continuation of the fall already in the medium term. To resume growth, you need to keep the price higher than the weekly short-term.
The daytime short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
