EUR / USD, GBP / USD
The focus of investors yesterday was the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, in the IMF. It should be noted that his statements regarding monetary policy in the past months have been alternating contradictory messages. In early June he announced the need to raise rates. At the end of the same month, he talked about the expediency of keeping a low rate for a long time. In August, he again hinted about raising. And yesterday, he once again talked about raising rates "very slowly." On the day's end, the pound lost 100 points. Meanwhile, the euro gained 13 points, thanks to a significant increase in Italy's trade balance for July from 4.50 billion euros to 6.56 billion euros and the unchanged August final estimates of the euro zone's CPI (the basic CPI of 1.2% y / y, the total CPI of 1.5% / g). In the US, the index of business activity in the housing market from NAHB fell from 67 to 64.
Today, the positive European macroeconomic trend may continue. The eurozone's balance of payments for July is expected to grow from 21.2 billion euros to 22.3 billion. The index of sentiment in German business circles ZEW is expected to rise from 10.0 to 12.3 in September and the growth of the index is forecasted from 29.3 euros up to 32.4.
In the US, the number of housing starts for August is expected to increase from 1.16 million to 1.17 million while the number of issued permits for the construction of a new house could drop to 1.22 million versus 1.23 million in July. The balance of payments for the second quarter may slightly improve with a forecast of 115 billion dollars against 117 billion in the first quarter.
The data, thus, supports the investor's mood for risk. Investors are also preparing for the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting of the Fed, which will announce the beginning of the reduction in the balance. Due to the fact that the expected solution is psychologically already fully absorbed by investors, it is very probable that the counter-dollar currencies will be bought against the news, as it was earlier at higher rates. We are waiting for the euro in the range of 1.2110 / 35 and the pound sterling at 1.3700.
AUD / USD
The general weakening of the dollar on Monday and the corresponding decline in prices for gold, iron ore, and coal lowered the Australian currency by 42 points. New car sales in Australia for August showed zero growth after a decline of 2.4% in the previous month. Iron ore has fallen in price by 1.44% while non-ferrous metals index has decreased by 0.23%.
Today, the RBA has published the minutes of the last meeting. The negative impact of the high rate of AUD on the economy and inflation was noted in the minutes. The existing labor market prospects are moderately optimistic, but the growth of wages is low and the level of population crediting is high. The overall picture and assessment of the RBA has remained unchanged since July, but the rate of the "Aussie" at the levels of the second half of July is also visually weaker than the euro and even the Canadian dollar. Australian investors in this situation need one thing: the weakening of the US dollar. This is crucial especially since this week's economic data for Australia will no longer be weak.
In connection with our expectation of the weakening of the US dollar, we are waiting for the growth of the "Australian" to 0.8075.
