For the EUR/USD pair - when the support line 1.2001 (the white line) is broken, the upward trend is maintained. For the GBP/USD pair, the Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% - 1.3316) has not yet been broken.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
In September, the market was moved down, closed on the support line at 1.1880. The price in October can move up. The price direction will show more accurate complex analysis.
Exchange rate as of September 30, 2017 analysis
Fig. 1 (weekly chart).
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2).
ADX Indicator system (Figure 2) for the EUR / USD pair.
On the last session, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by the trend type indicators.
Indicator MACD (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - white color line.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
MACD Histogram
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result for the MACD Histogram is a downward trend (100 points down).
Overall: the MACD indicator on the monthly chart showed a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is the yellow (the trend of the week).
1 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue), moving up above the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which moved upwards - the signal is up.
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) , moving up and crossed the 13th middle line of the EMA (yellow), which moved upwards - the signal is up.At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow), moving up above the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved upwards - gain an upward signal.
The bottom line: the EMA mid- line system on the weekly chart showed an upward signal.The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
- average EMA lines - 24% up;
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down.
The overall total: According to the indicator analysis, the price on the monthly chart should have an upward trend.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) - the bottom signal.
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal..
Result: The calculation of the monthly candle for October on technical analysis showed that the price movement in the first week of this month will be lower, but eventually the weekly schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.
The calculation for the MACD linear part indicated a downward trend (100 points down)..
Calculation of the MACD histogram indicated a downward trend (100 points down).
The bottom line: The calculation for the last week of June on technical analysis showed that the price will have a downward trend, but eventually the weekly schedule will answer this question.
Exchange rate as of September 30, 2017 analysis
Fig. 2 (weekly chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on the complex analysis: The probability of top work is 70% x 30%..
The total result of the candle calculation for EUR/USD currency pair based on the monthly chart shows that the price is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month - the bottom) of the monthly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week is black).
The primary top target is 1.2092 (the retracement level is 50%).
GBP / USD Pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
The price in September is moving upwards and reached the resistance line 1.3505, but hit below the 1.3396 line as the month ends. Most likely, there will be a lower movement in October. But the price direction will further show more accurate complex analysis.
Fig. 1 (weekly chart).
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2) for the GBP / USD pair.
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - white color line.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line..
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend (100 points up).
MACD Histogram
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result for the MACD histogram is an upward trend (100 points up)
Overall: the MACD indicator on the monthly chart shows an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - color red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - color blue (trend of the week).
13 the middle line of the EMA - color yellow (the trend of the week).
21 middle EMA line - color brown (trend of the week).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) is moving up which is below the 13th EMA midline (yellow), and moved upwards - the signal is down.
At the last run 8, the middle line EMA (blue) is moving upwards and crossed the 13th middle line of the EMA (yellow), which moved upwards - no.
At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow) is moving upwards which is below the 21 middle line of the EMA (black) and moved upward - the amplification of the lower work signal.
The bottom line: the EMA mid-line system on the weekly chart shows a downward signal.
The probability distribution of the indicators are as follows:
- middle EMA lines - 24% down;
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% up;
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% up.
The overall total: According to the indicator analysis, the price on the monthly chart should have an upward trend.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is the upper signal.
The calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is not needed.
The bottom line: The calculation on technical analysis for the monthly candle of October showed that the price movement in the first week of September will be the upper one, but finally the weekly schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.The calculation for the MACD linear part - showed an upward trend (100 points up).
Calculation of the MACD histogram - showed an upward trend (100 points up).
The bottom line: the technical analysis calculation for the last week of September showed that the price will have an upward trend, but finally the weekly schedule will answer this question definitively..
Exchange rate as at 30/09/2017 analysis
Fig. 2 (weekly chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on the complex analysis - Possibly be on top.
GBP/USD on the monthly chart: The price would likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) with a monthly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow (last week is white).
The primary top target is 1.3605.
