Yesterday, even the very good data on the sales of new houses, which grew by 18.9%, could not help the dollar, and it surrendered positions on all fronts. First, the pound began to grow against the background of preliminary GDP data, which showed that the rate of economic growth in the UK did not slow down but remained the same. This somewhat reduced fears about the negative consequences of Brexit and increased the likelihood of an early increase in the refinancing rate of the Bank of England. But the single European currency was growing for completely different reasons. The market is waiting for the ECB to announce the completion of the quantitative easing program, and yesterday there were rumors that it would happen today.
Indeed, the most important event is today's ECB meeting on monetary policy, and if after it is announced that the quantitative easing program will be completed in December, the euro will continue its growth. No other news today has any significance.
If the market expectations are justified, then the euro / dollar pair will continue to increase and rise to 1.1900. If, however, Mario Draghi again declares that, if necessary, the program will be extended, then the pair will drop to 1.1775.
The pound / dollar pair will follow the single European currency through the dollar index, and with a favorable development of events, it will grow to 1.3350. In the negative scenario, it is worth waiting for a decline to 1.3175.
