On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 8.30 London time. GBP, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) (Oct.). The expected value is 55.8, compared to the previous value of 55.9;
- 11.15 London time. USD, a change in the number of non-farm workers from ADP (Oct.); The expected value is 200K, compared to the previous value of 135K;
- 13.00 London time. USD, PMI from the ISM (Oct.); The expected value is 59.5 compared to the previous value of 60.8;
- 13.30 London time. USD, stocks of crude oil; The expected value is -1.756M, compared to the previous value of 0.856M;
- 17.00 London time. USD, FOMC statement;
- 17.00 London time. USD, the decision on the interest rate of the Fed; The expected value is 1.25% compared to the previous value of 1.25%.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Tuesday, the market moves in the side channel in anticipation of strong news to be released the following day. On Wednesday, the movement will be in the side channel, the technical analysis will work until 11.15 Moscow time. A complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
At the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved down, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved upwards. In this case, the trend should be determined by the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives a downward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
The candle closed at the last day
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (5) on the gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (8) on the gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the CCI indicator gives an upward trend.
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives an upward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - upwards;
- candlestick analysis - up;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
On Wednesday before the news, the decline is possible to continue.
GBP / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Tuesday, the market continued to move up. On Wednesday, it will greatly depend on the news. Before the news, the price can move in the side channel. A complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Overall: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved upwards, is below the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the bottom work.
21, the middle EMA line, moving up, is above the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the bottom work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% down;
indicator of the MACD (linear part) - 38% up;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% higher.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an uptrend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - neutral;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
On Wednesday, before the news on the GBP / USD pair may move upward.
