EUR / USD, GBP / USD
Yesterday, in the absence of American investors, the market was very productive. The euro grew by 26 points while the pound decreased by 20 points. German Manufacturing PMI showed the November growth to 62.5 from 60.6 and the European Manufacturing PMI grew from 58.5 to 60.0 with a decrease to 58.3. The Services PMI of the euro area increased from 55.0 to 56.2 against the forecast of 55.3. The index of sentiment in the business circles of Belgium in the current month rose from 0.5 to 1.6.
The ECB's protocols came out as expected and was neutral. The main intrigue remained on the issue of the completion time of the QE program. The outlook on economic prospects was moderately-opportunistic.
According to the UK, the data came out good. However, the sensitive issue of the negotiation process did not allow the transformation of these data into the growth of the national currency. GDP for the 3rd quarter in the second assessment remained at the same level at 0.4%. The balance of retail sales from the CBI for November soared from -36 to 26 with the expectation of 5.
So, a significant breakthrough of the euro on the ECB protocols was not followed. In practice, this means that European investors have left it up to their American counterparts to make the next move. Their actions have long been determined despite being slow with their work. This is the buying of the dollar. Today, there will be definite grounds for this. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector from Markit in the preliminary estimate for November is expected to increase from 54.6 to 55.1. The index of business activity in the service sector for the current month is projected to grow from 55.3 to 55.5. Germany is expected to lower the index of sentiment in business circles Ifo in November from 116.7 to 116.6.
We are waiting for the decline of the euro to 1.1715 and the pound sterling to the range of 1.3185-1.3225 and further to 1.3080.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar rose slightly yesterday, adding 7 points against the background of a slight weakening of the US dollar index and overall growth in commodity markets. Energy carriers and iron ore grew while non-ferrous metals were traded mixed. Small shifts in commodity markets, however, could not suppress a fall in shares of mining Australian companies (Rio Tinto -0.47%, BHP Billiton -0.43%). The composite index of S & P / ASX200 declined by 0.25%. Worse than the forecast today was New Zealand's trade balance for October which was at -871 million dollars against expectations of -750 million and -1156 million dollars in September.
Next week, economic indicators for Australia will come on Thursday. The "Aussie" will continue to follow the dollar index.
We are waiting for the quotation of the AUD / USD pair at 0.7580 and 0.7540.
