EUR / USD, GBP / USD
The main news of Friday was the "even closer convergence" of Ireland and Britain on the border issue (Reuters) and on the financial side of the deal according to European Commissioner Oettinger. None of the issues have been decided yet but investors have prepared. The pound increased by 82 points. The euro lost 22 points on the discrepancies in the economic data of the euro area with the United States. Industrial production in Germany contracted 1.4% in October while France's trade balance for the same month deteriorated from -4.6 billion euros to -5.0 billion euros. In the US, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 238K to 236K with the forecast having assumed growth to 239K. Consumer loans in October amounted to $ 20.5 billion compared to $ 19.2 billion in September with the forecast of $ 17.4 billion.
After the American president recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, fighting broke out in the Gaza Strip between Israelis and Palestinians. Earlier, we wrote about the fact that Donald Trump is not a "pure" Republican just as Barack Obama was a Democrat only nominally. We cited arguments for the joining up of the oligarchic clans of both the Republicans and Democrats and Trump's not-so-bright democratic gesture toward Israel finally removes any perplexity in this political game. Now, we have no doubt that the adopted budget will suit both sides. The Fed will remain under the control of the democratic wing. The budget will be pumped from external markets and if necessary, QE4 can be launched immediately. Oil prices may fall as much as possible in US strategic goals. Also, if oil prices rise, it is by no means due to the party membership of the president.
Today the main news will be the release of US labor data. The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 198-200 thousand following the data of 261 thousand in October. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.1%. The average hourly pay can show an increase of 0.3%. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the preliminary assessment for December is projected to be at 99.0 against 98.5 before. For all indicators, expectations are very optimistic.
Germany will issue a trade balance for October with a forecast of 22.0 billion euros against 21.8 billion in September. Here, the figure may be slightly worse than the forecast due to the decline in October industrial production (-1.4%) and business sentiment indexes. Industrial production in France is expected in November -0.1%.
In the UK, industrial production for October could show a zero increase after the previous 0.7%. Production in the construction sector is expected to increase by 0.2% but the previous fall was 1.6%. The trade balance of the UK for October is projected to deteriorate from -11.3 billion pounds to -11.5 billion.
As a result, the euro is waiting in the range of 1.1650 / 65 while the pound sterling is in the range of 1.3300 / 30.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar is steadily declining, following the general negative economic trends and the strengthening US dollar. Yesterday, the trade balance of Australia for the month of October assessment failed. Imports increased by 2% while exports decreased by 3%. The Trade Balance in money amounted to 0.105 billion dollars against 1.604 billion in September and a forecast of 1.410 billion. The volume of mortgage loans in October shrank by 0.6% after the previous reduction of 2.5%. The cost of iron ore fell by 5.3% to 65.70 dollars per ton. Gold has fallen in price by 0.9% and aluminum by 0.4%. Copper has risen in price symbolically. In general, the decline of the "Aussie" in recent days is due to a general deterioration of this week's indicators on the balance of payments (-9.1 billion), GDP (0.6% vs 0.7% of the forecast) and yesterday's trade balance. Today, pressure will continue from the US. There will be data on employment. The Chinese stock market has fallen for the past three days. We are waiting for the AUD / USD pair in the range of 0.7375 / 85.
