EUR / USD, GBP / USD
On Friday, investors did not withstand the high nervous tension brought about by buying counter-dollar currencies against the third rate hike in the US. On the other hand, closing positions at the end of the week looks justified, especially with the strong US data and the parliamentary taking control of the Brexit process. Now, according to the law passed on Friday, an agreement on the withdrawal from the EU should receive preliminary parliamentary approval. The head of the European Commission, J. Juncker, the head of the European Council, D. Tusk, and the chief negotiator from the EU, M. Barnier, have all repeatedly said that the trade agreement will be adopted soon and unequivocally with great difficulties. Now it becomes clear that all of May's optimistic statements, especially if one takes into account the shift of Finance Minister F. Hammond from the post of deputy chairman of the Conservative Party for maintaining parliamentary control over Brexit, do not really correspond to reality and has misled investors. The pound lost 109 points on Friday.
The Eurozone trade balance released on Friday showed a drop in October from 24.5 billion euros to 19.0 billion while expectations were at 24.4 billion. Meanwhile, the September volume was revised down from 26.2 billion euros. In the US, November industrial production added 0.2% against the forecast of 0.3%. The growth in capacity utilization increased by 0.1% to 77.1%. The euro lost 28 points.
Today, something new and good for the euro and the pound is not expected. Italy's trade balance for October is projected at 3.23 billion euros against 3.99 billion in September. The euro zone's CPI in the final estimate for last month is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9% y / y in the base CPI and 1.5% y / y in the general. According to the UK, the balance of production orders from CBI for December is expected to fall from 17 to 14. In the US, the index of business activity in the housing market from NAHB for December may remain at the same level of 70 points. Soon, the US Congress will adopt a tax reform.
We are waiting for the euro at 1.1670 and further at 1.1630. We are waiting for the pound sterling in the range of 1.3120 / 60.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar was unable to break through a powerful price range of 0.7640-0.7700, wherein short positions accumulated throughout the first decade of November were. Even significant growth in commodity markets did not help. Iron ore added 2.2%, oil grew by 0.6%, and copper increased by 1.4%. Against the background of the general strengthening of the US currency, the "Aussie" lost 20 points. Today in the Asian session, the Australian currency makes another attempt to gain a foothold in the designated range and again with the help of the US dollar. The dollar index is lost 0.06% this morning. Sales of new cars for November showed an increase of 0.1%. Also in the morning, a government forecast was published on the development of the economy and the prospects for fiscal policy, which noted an increase in the rate of budget deficit reduction at $ 23.6 billion as of June 2018 against the forecast of $ 29.4 billion in May of this year. The government expects a surplus of 10.2 billion in 2020/21. The Minister of Finance Scott Morrison said that from the next fiscal year, the government will no longer resort to external borrowing. The forecast for GDP was still more cautious and even lowered from 2.75% to 2.50%. The stock index of Australia S&P / ASX 200 added 0.69% but, as usual, optimism was spoiled in China. Its Shanghai Composite is down by 0.13%. The Indian Nifty50 is losing 2.0% due to the defeat of the ruling party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the elections in the states of Gujarat, native state of Modi, and Himachal Pradesh.
We believe that the positive news for Australia, which has only the traditional optimism of the government, will not affect investors for long. We are waiting for the decline of the AUD / USD pair to 0.7550, 0.7500, and 0.7470.
