EUR / USD, GBP / USD
On Monday, the euro and pound sterling slightly increased against the backdrop of fixing sales by traders awaiting the Senate vote on tax reform. It is expected that the final vote will be released today but John McCain will not be able to attend because of his illness. Republicans lose one vote. We still remain optimistic and we will not even be surprised if one of the democrats under a weighty pretext votes for the reform. This is because the day before yesterday none of the democratic camps expressed a desire to vote for it.
A small support for counter-dollar currencies was provided by economic data. Italy's trade balance for October increased from 3.99 billion euros to 4.95 billion, while waiting for a decline to 3.23 billion euros. Eurozone consumer price indices for November in the final assessment came out no worse than the previous estimates: 0.9% y / y in the base CPI and 1.5% y / y in total. In the UK, the balance of production orders from CBI in December remained at the level of 17 against the expectation of a fall to 14 points. This means that the highest figure since 1988 is held for the second consecutive month.
Today, supporters of the euro are waiting for the release of the sentiment index in German Ifo Business Climate Index for the current month with a forecast of 117.6 against 117.5 in November. In the US, the slowdown in the rate of bookmarks for new homes is forecasted in the November estimate. The forecast is at 1.25 million versus 1.29 million in October. The number of issued permits for the construction of a new house is expected at 1.28 million versus 1.32 million earlier. The US balance of payments for the third quarter is forecast to be at - 117 billion dollars against -123 billion in the second quarter. And it's positive. The main event of the day may be the Senate's vote on tax reform. In case of a positive outcome, it is possible to reach the price of 1.1670 EUR / USD today. The pound sterling is waiting in the range of 1.3225 / 45 in the future for several days.
USD / JPY
The Japanese yen received the long-awaited support from Japanese macroeconomic data. Yesterday, the November trade balance estimate was published, taking into account seasonal fluctuations. It showed growth from 0.35 trillion yen and was revised from 0.32 trillion to 0.36 trillion yen. The volume of exports increased from 14.0% y / y to 16.2% y / y, with the expectation of growth to 14.6% y / y. Imports lowered the rate of increase from 18.9% y / y to 17.2% y / y. The trade balance, excluding seasonal fluctuations, amounted to 113 billion yen against the forecast of -55 billion. After yesterday's active purchases in the stock market wherein the Nikkei 225 added 1.54%, the index lost 0.07% today while the China A50 grew by 1.06% and the Australian S&P / ASX 200 by 0.65%. This is probably due to the fact that the Japanese economy is more sensitive to changes in the US and investors are also waiting for voting in the Senate.
We are waiting for the yen to rise to 113.90.
