On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 9.00 London time. USD, the number of issued building permits (Dec.). The expected value is 1.290M, compared to the previous value of 1.303M;
- 12.30 London time. USD, the index of production activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Jan.). The expected value is 25.0, compared to the previous value of 27.9;
- 12.30 London time. USD, stocks of crude oil. The expected value is -3.588M compared to the previous value is -4.948M.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Wednesday, the price moved down. On Thursday, the market may continue to move down. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The grand total: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the top work.
21, the middle EMA line, moving upwards, is below the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the top work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
the MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
On Thursday, the market will most likely move down, with the first target of 1.2142 (a recoil rate of 23.6%).
GBP / USD pair
On Wednesday, the price continued to move upward (one day the pullback was sufficient) and reached the resistance line. Then, it went back down. The market is likely to continue its downtrend. The first stop is possible at the level of 1.3790 (the retracement level of 23.6%). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Overall: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the top work.
21, the middle EMA line, moving upwards, is below the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the top work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
the indicator of the MACD (linear part) - 38% up;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% higher.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an upward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion:
On Thursday, the GBP / USD pair may move down. The stop is possible at the level of 1.3790 (the retracement level is 23.6%).
