The pair continues to trade above the monthly short-term fault of January 1.2303-1.2266, which indicates a high probability of price return to its limits. On the way of falling, the main support is the weekly short-term.
Medium-term plan.
The fall of the pair for the third time in two weeks was stopped by a week-long short-term fault of 1.2370-1.2354. This indicates the interest of the hedgers and the protection of their long positions. The European Central Bank is also interested in strengthening the euro, so the downward movement remains correct. Trade for a return to the monthly short-term is due to statistical data that indicates the probability of a return to similar zones in 90% of cases. Such a resonance in the incoming data suggests the need to fix both long and short positions when testing significant support and resistance zones.
An alternative model, under current conditions, will be the breakdown of the weekly short-term and a decrease to the monthly short-term fault of January, which will allow implementing the priority downward medium-term model.
Intraday plan.
Today, the pair tested two important zones at once. First, there was a weekly short-term test of 1.2370-1.2354, which is the determining support for both intraday and medium-term movements. Closer to the American session, there was a test of the NKZ 1/2 1.2427-1.2419, formed from a weekly low. To continue the growth, it will require the closure of today's US session above this zone. This will allow us to consider the retest of the January maximum. If the price is kept below the level of 1.2427, the downward movement will continue.
Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
