EUR / USD, GBP / USD.
The main event of yesterday was the publication of the ECB's minutes from the last meeting. As we expected, it turned out to be in neutral tones. But the document was enough as a pigeon, and hawkish moments. In particular, the ECB noted the accelerating inflation, raising the forecast to 1.7% for the next year (+ 0.1%), in connection with which "the Central Bank can review its monetary policy earlier this year." From the context under the beginning of the year is understood from the first half of the year. Hawkeye-minded investors, of course, found in moments of the ECB good for themselves moments and began to buy the euro. But this growth was very weak, as European economic data turned out to be worse than expected. The index of sentiment in business circles of Germany Ifo for February fell from 117.6 to 115.4, with the expectation of a decrease to 117.1. The GDP of the UK for the 4th quarter in the 2nd assessment was lowered from 0.5% to 0.4%, on an annualized basis. The decline was from 2.0% to 1.6%. The balance of retail sales from CBI fell from 12 to 8, with the expectation of growth to 13 points. In the United States, weekly applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 222 thousand against the forecast of 230 thousand. The index of leading economic indicators (CB Leading Index) added 1.0% in January against the expectation of 0.7%. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, said yesterday that the expectations of the four rate hikes are overstated and unreasonable. Speaking later, Randal Quarles also supported a "gradual" increase in rates.
So, new developments were able to keep the counter dollar currencies from further falling. If today's speeches of four representatives of the Federal Reserve can convince investors of the stability of the regulator's intentions not to show excessive "hardness" (which, of course, they can do), the dollar may continue to weaken. Speakers William Dudley, Eric Rosengren, Loretta Meister, John Williams. The European data is expected to remain unchanged. Germany's GDP for the fourth quarter in the final estimate may remain at 0.6%, the basic CPI of the euro area in the final estimate for January will hold at 1.0% y / y, the base CPI at 1.3% y / y.
We are waiting for the euro in the range of 1.2520 / 40, pound sterling at 1.4150.
USD / JPY.
On Thursday, the yen did not receive sufficient support from foreign markets and some aggressive players quickly closed purchases of the beginning of the week. The US stock index S & P500 added only 0.1%, Russell2000 lost -0.20%. Today, in the Asian session, investor sentiment is improving; the Japanese Nikkei225 is growing by 0.51%, the Chinese China A50 by 0.22%, the Indian Nifty50 + 0.33%.
Japanese CPIs came out good today. The base index in the January estimate remained at 0.9% y / y against the expectation of a decrease to 0.8% y / y, the total CPI increased from 1.0% y / y to 1.4% y / y, while 1.3 % y / y. Japanese media are beginning to interpret positive Japanese data as a condition for further risk, and negative data as confidence that the Bank of Japan will not rush with the curtailment of monetary incentives. This feature tells us that the Central Bank has really set about correcting the situation and the markets are given a medium-term direction.
We are waiting for the yen to rise to the level of 108.00. Further to the range of 108.50 / 80.
