Despite the statistical data, the single European currency continued to lose its positions. Although the European data itself was not so significant, in contrast to the US. The growth rate of consumer lending, as expected, accelerated from 2.8% to 2.9%, but this was just the most important news, as the remaining indicators are of little interest to anyone. The index of business optimism in industry fell from 9.0 to 8.0, the index of sentiment in the economy fell from 114.9 to 114.1, the indicator of the business climate from 1.56 to 1.48, and the level of consumer confidence from 1.4 to 0.1. Only the mood indicator in the services sector grew from 16.8 to 17.5. Orders for durable goods collapsed by 3.7% and the preliminary data on commodity stocks in wholesale warehouses showed an increase of 0.7%. The growth rate of housing prices slowed from 6.4% to 6.3%. In such conditions, the dollar should immediately fall in price, but this did not happen. It's all about the speech of the new head of the Fed, since Mr. Powell said not just about the continuation of the policy of gradual increase of the refinancing rate, but also that in case of overheating of the economy, more stringent measures can be taken. In other words, the Fed can accelerate the process of raising the refinancing rate. And while we omit the remark on the overheating of the economy, the signs of which are already visible to the naked eye.
Although the single European currency is heavily resold, today it has little chance of recovery. As expected, the preliminary data on inflation will show its slowdown from 1.3% to 1.2%, which does not add optimism. In the meantime, the second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter is coming out in the US, and it should once again show the acceleration of economic growth from 2.3% to 2.5%.
Most likely, the euro / dollar pair will decline to 1.2200. If the data on inflation in Europe is better than forecasts, then it is worth waiting for growth to 1.2325.
