Nationwide has already released data on real estate in the UK, which showed a slowdown in prices from 3.2% to 2.2%. The real estate market is one of the main indicators of the investment attractiveness of the UK, and the slowdown in price growth is an extremely negative factor already reflected in the pound. The expectations on the credit market are also difficult to call positive. The volume of issued consumer loans could reach 1.4 billion pounds against 1.5 billion pounds in the previous month. The only thing that can mitigate this negative is the data on the number of approved applications for mortgages, the number of which should increase from 61 039 to 62 000. In addition, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may decline from 55.3 to 55.0.
Nevertheless, US statistics will have a more negative impact on the dollar. On the one hand, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should increase from 55.5 to 55.9. Meanwhile, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits may increase from 222 thousand to 226 thousand, and repeated from 1,875 thousand to 1,930 thousand. In addition, personal income is expected to grow by 0.3%, and expenses on 0.2%. Revenues have long been growing faster than expenditures, and in combination with the growth of warehouse stocks and the decline in orders for durable goods clearly indicate an overheating of the economy.
The currency pair GBP / USD similarly to the euro showed higher volatility, lowering the quotation up to the level of 1.3760, with the attempt to fix below. Now, we see an obvious overheating, expressed in stagnation from two-digit candles like "Doji". Probably assume a temporary wagging in the 1.3740 / 1.3800 range, if the bulls manage to work out the level, then we will be dragged to 1.3860 / 1.3900.
At the same time, it is worth taking a closer look at the current development. If we see a wobble with gradual fixation below the level of 1.3740 and an increase in short positions, then the current level may fall, opening as a result new downward horizons.
