On Wednesday, these are the expected strong news:
- 11.30 London time, GBP, annual budget;
- 12.15 London time, USD, change in the number of non-agricultural workers from ADP (Feb.), The expected value is 234k;
- 14.30 London time, USD, stocks of crude oil, The expected value is 2.723M to the previous value of 3.019M.
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
On Monday, the price moved up. On Tuesday, prior to the news, the market could move up towards the first goal of 1.3952 with a retracement level of 38.2%. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved upward, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Overall: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved upward below the 13th EMA midline (yellow) which is the signal of the bottom work.
21, the middle EMA line, moved upward above the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the bottom work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% down;
The MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% up,
The MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% higher.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an upward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Wednesday, it is possible for the GBP/USD pair to continue moving upward with the first target of 1.3928 in the upper fractal.
