Today, all the attention of market players will be concentrated on the publication of data on the number of new jobs in the US economy for the month of February.
Investors are lately under considerable pressure from negative news, which greatly increased volatility in financial markets. The initiative of D. Trump in the issue of introducing new tariffs has swung the financial markets and brought confusion. But after yesterday's statement by the US president that the approach to setting new customs duties on aluminum and steel will be flexible and that the main allies of the States will not suffer, somewhat lowered the tension in the markets, but does not completely exclude the possibility that Trump will return to pressure on exporters not only metals in the US. We believe that this is just a breather.
But back to the main event of the day. According to the forecasts, it is expected that the US economy received 200,000 new jobs in February, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%. In fact, if the data are not worse than expected, it will be possible to talk about the achievement of the US labor market of the concept of "full employment", which will be the strongest signal for the continuation of the Fed's rate of interest rates.
Important in this regard is today's speech of Fed member E. George, who said that inflation could reach the target level of 2.0% this year and that raising interest rates "is the key to financial stability and stable inflation." She also said that she believes "the slow reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is a factor in the destabilization of markets." In other words, it advocates that the regulator more actively reduce its balance.
Today, following the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Japan, it became clear that from it one should not expect active actions aimed at changing the monetary course. The bank not only left interest rates and assets repurchased at previous levels, but also through its representatives made it clear that it will continue to strive to support inflation by buying financial assets. On this wave, the yen fell against all major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR / USD currency pair may be under pressure on the wave of strong employment data from the US Department of Labor. A price fall below 1.2290 could lead to a drop to 1.2175.
The USD / JPY currency pair found support at the level of 105.40. The results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Japan significantly reduce the likelihood of stopping them buying assets, as well as a promising increase in interest rates. It can be assumed that if the markets do not intensify the new panic mood, the pair will continue to rise to 107.80 on the wave of positive news from the US.
