EUR / USD
On Tuesday, investors discovered another craving for risk after the long weekend. The US stock index S&P 500 increased by 1.26% while the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 2.55% to 2.60%. This means that selling bonds is reducing their value. Under external pressure, the euro closed the day by a decline of 30 points. On the same day, disappointing data on retail sales in Germany came out. In February, the indicator fell by 0.7% against the expectation of a growth of 0.7%. Retail sales are falling for the third consecutive month. The final assessment of the PMI Manufacturing for March did not change at 56.6.
Today, good economic indicators are expected in the euro area. The unemployment rate can show a decline from 8.6% to 8.5%. The Core CPI in the March estimate is expected to increase from 1.0% y / y to 1.1% y / y. The total CPI is expected to increase from 1.1% y / y to 1.4% y / y .
According to the US, there will be a change in the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) for the previous month. The forecast is 208 thousand against 235 thousand in February which is a moderately strong forecast. The volume of industrial orders for February is expected to grow by 1.7% against -1.4% in January. The index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector from the ISM Institute for March is expected to decrease from 59.5 to 59.0-59.2 but the final estimate of Services PMI from Markit can show an increase from 54.1 to 54.3.
They are warming up the investor sentiment for risk using President Trump's promise to agree to all the positions of the NAFTA agreement by the middle of the month. Interest in the Trump Reform was also provoked by yesterday's data on car sales by the leading US automakers (Total Vehicle Sales), which showed an increase from 17.08 million to 17.48 million in March. Although the figure did not exceed the data at the end of 2015 (18, 24 million), yesterday's growth by optimistic investors can be seen as an effect of the president's tax reforms.
We are waiting for the euro at 1.2210.
