EUR / USD
The situation of the market was the continuation of Monday's performance. Oil continued its intensive growth (+ 3.6%) and pulled the euro along with the number of dollar assets. The American stock market added 1.67% (S & P500). European economic data came out worse than expected. French industrial production in March showed an increase of 1.2% against the forecast of 1.5%. The drop in Industrial Production in the previous month was 1.8%. Industrial production in Italy in February lost 0.5% against the growth expectation of 1.0%. In the United States, the smallest business optimism index fell from 107.6 to 104.7 in March, with a much lower decline expected to 107.0, but a significant index of the producer price index (PPI). %. The base PPI grew by 0.3% against expectations of 0. 2%. The final assessment for wholesale inventories in commercial warehouses for February was revised from 1.1% to 1.0% against the worst forecast of 0.8%. Forecast of the first quarter at 2.0%.
Today at 9:00 PM London time, Italy's retail sales data in February will be released with a forecast of 0.3% versus -0.5% in January. At 12:00 PM London time, Mario Draghi will speak to the student community in Frankfurt and audiences are expected to have some questions. Perhaps, the ECB head will be asked to comment on the statement of Ewald Nowotny yesterday about the interest rate hike soon after the completion of the QE program (whereas the ECB previously claimed a long pause).
At 1:30 PM London time, US inflation indicators for March will come out. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to grow by 0.0% from 0.2% in February, while the core indicator (Core CPI) is projected to increase by 0.2%. At 7:00 PM London time, the minutes will be published from the last Fed meeting. It is expected that the document will be more accurately verified in the hawkish key to neutralize the "ambiguity" of Powell's first speech and finally give the markets a clearer direction of action.
In the coming days, the euro is unlikely to unfold and now the market has two major influences, which are the expected war in Syria and the US trade deal with China. We are waiting for the lateral development of prices in the range of 1.2320-1.2410.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
