EUR / USD
In the past three days, the single European currency practically stands still. The stock market and gold both demonstrated moderate growth. Oil in three days increased by 3.6%, with the major trend that occurred yesterday. Commonly, the weakening of the dollar occurred when Iran made a countermeasure to the United States, due to America's withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, and switched the currency balance sheets of the country to European account. As much as possible, Iran seeks to use the euro in international settlements. Iran has revived the damped activity of some countries to reduce dollar payments, and now the US simply must start strengthening the dollar. Otherwise, the US plan to finance its own infrastructure but will cause harm to external investors.
The final estimate of the CPI in the euro area for March was revised downward from 1.4% YoY to 1.3% YoY. The basic CPI remained at 1.0%YoY. The report of the Beige book failed to attract investors and the only concern in the report was the risk of a trade war with China.
Today, the euro zone's balance of payments for February will be published, but the outlook was negative at 32.3 billion euro against 37.6 billion in January. In the United States, the weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected at 230,000 versus 233,000 last week. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia in April may fall from 22.3 to 20.8. The index of leading economic indicators for March is expected to increase by 0.3% after 0.6% in February.
Tomorrow, the three-day summit of the IMF and the World Bank will begin. The main agenda will be the capitalization of these structures. Most countries refuse to invest additional funds in financial institutions, and the WB has managed to declare the reduction of volume in terms of global investment from $ 30 billion a year to $ 20 billion. Formally, this put pressure on the world economy which is also favorable for the dollar in the medium and long-term.
Strong incentives are also predicted to weaken the euro and the price is expected at 1.2320.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
