EUR / USD
The markets have plenty of noise on Monday. This is partly because of the important macroeconomic data coming out today in Europe and the United States, but the main reason is the systematic increase in pressure on the counter dollar currencies. Yesterday, the single European currency reached the lower limit of the three-month range 1.2210-1.2410 as it fell by 80 points a day. Given enough time, making this particular range as strategic in the repositioning of large players, then fixing the price below will lead to a medium-term reduction of the euro. From the technical side, the following consolidation range may be 1.1900-1.2030, which was formed in September last year. The general agreement of Western business media attempted to exert pressure on the euro, even Markit joined, and assessed the current euro exchange rate as slowing the European economy.
Therefore, the preliminary assessment of business activity index in the manufacturing sector (Manufacturing PMI) of the euro area in April fell from 56.6 to 56.0. The PMI in the services sector increased from 54.9 to 55.0. In the US, Manufacturing PMI (Markit) increased from 55.6 to 56.5, while services PMI rose from 54.0 to 54.4. Obviously, the tax reduction and the shocking protectionist policy of President Donald Trump increase the optimism of large businesses. The increased in Manufacturing PMI occurred only in summer of 2014. Services PMI increased from 54.0 to 54.4. US Home sales in the secondary real estate market in March amounted to 5.60 million against the forecast of 5.55 million and 5.54 million in February. Observers noted that the insufficient supply was because of the holding of apartments by owners against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates and overall housing growth. From this perspective, we can expect a smooth and stable increase in this index.
Today, the euro does not rely on anything either. The sentiment index in German business circles Ifo for April is projected to decrease from 103.2 to 102.7. The sentiment index in business circles of Belgium for April is expected at -0.6 points against 0.1 in March.
In the US, the sales data in the primary housing market for March will come out. The forecast is 625 thousand against 618 thousand a month earlier. The house price index for February is expected to grow by 0.5%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for April is expected to decrease from 127.7 to 126.0, while the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Richmond can rise from 15 to 16.
We are expecting the euro in the range of 1.2155 / 65, followed in the range of 1.2060 / 90.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
