EUR / USD pair
On Tuesday, the euro was under pressure for the whole day from a variety of political and economic factors. Germany's trade balance for March was better than forecast of 22.0 billion euros against 19.9 billion. The indicator was revised to increase from 19.2 to 19.4 billion euros in February. Germany's industrial production added 1.0% against expectations of 0.8% in March. Speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in Switzerland was quite aggressive giving a message of a rhythmic-sounded for further increase in rates. he head of the Federal Reserve even noted that a number of institutional investors, in spite of the excitement around the topic of raising rates, are in fact not quite ready for such tightening. Under the impression of the euro was before the speech of Donald Trump, which was late in the evening. As expected, the U.S. president tore up the nuclear deal with Iran, but postponed the imposition of sanctions "of the highest level" for half a year (prior to the coordination of all issues with the Congress), which sharply reduced the nervousness of the markets. Also, the EU spoke out against the break-up of the nuclear deal with Iran. Only Israel supported Israel. As a result, the euro fell 56 points and gold closed at the opening level. Meanwhile, the price of oil did not change and shows moderate growth today in the Asian session.
Today, European data on the industrial output in France for April will be published, with a forecast of 0.4% after 1.2% in March, as well as the retail sales in Italy for March with a forecast of 0.1% after 0.4% in February. The US may weaken inflation indices. The base producer price index (PPI) for April is expected to grow by 0.2% a month, but year on year forecast will decrease from 2.7% to 2.4%. The total PPI is also expected to grow by 0.2% a month, but down from an annualized rate of 3.0% to 2.8%. Wholesale stocks of warehouses in the final evaluation for March can increased from 0.5% to 0.6%. But, the EIA report on oil and petroleum products in the US on May 4 - forecast -0.2 million barrels against the growth of 6.2 million a week earlier may not be in favor of the dollar.
Thus, the price of the euro has reached a significant from the technical point of view of the target range of 1.1820 / 35. To further reduce to 1.1710 / 20 we need new untouched reports. e do not doubt their imminent arrival, but for now a correction to 1.1935 is possible.
