GBP / USD
As expected in the previous forecast, the Bank of England showed excessive conservatism and deprived investors with the prospects for a rate hike in the coming months. The balance of votes for the rate increase remained unchanged since the last meeting by 2-7. Many expected for a shift towards 3-6. Economic indicators also came out worse than forecasts. Industrial production in March added 0.1%, as expected. But on an annual basis, the industrial production increased by 2.9% YoY against expectations of 3.1% YoY due to the downward revision of data for the previous months. The production volume in the construction sector lost 2.3% in the month against the forecast of -2.1%. In the manufacturing industry, compression was recorded at 0.1%. The commodity trade balance for March showed an expansion of the negative balance from -10.4 billion pounds (revised from -10.2 billion) to -12.3 billion pounds, while the forecast assumed a deterioration to -11.2 billion. As a result, the pound declined by 29 points. From a greater decline, the British pound saved the dollar, after the day fell 0.42%.
There are no expected economic news from the UK today. According to the United States, the import price index will be published (an increase of 0.5% is assumed) and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in Mays shows a forecast at 98.4 against 98.8 earlier.
We are expecting the British pound at 1.3330 for several days.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
