Technical outlook:
EURUSD might be close to terminating its counter-trend rally, which began from the 1.1950 level last Friday. It has either found resistance at 1.2144 today or might extend through the 1.2200/30 levels in the next few trading sessions. The EUR/USD pair is seen to be trading around the 1.2125 level at this point in writing and might be preparing to resume lower from here.
Immediate resistance stays at 1.2190, followed by 1.2350, while support is seen at the 1.1950 level respectively. The short term wave structure suggests that EUR/USD has carved a bearish boundary between 1.2350 and 1.1950 and is retracing for now. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracements of entire drop is seen towards the 1.2200 mark. A strong bearish reaction can be expected if prices manage to reach there.
Thereafter, the bearish drop is expected to reach up to the 1.1600 level over the next several weeks. The larger wave structure also indicates that EUR/USD might have completed its uptrend that had begun since the 1.0636 low in March 2020. Probability remains for a push through the 1.1200/1.1300 levels.
Trading plan:
Remain short, add more @ 1.2200, stop @ 1.2450, target is @ 1.1600 at least.
Good luck!
