In the course of his speeches, a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve once again stressed their commitment to further tightening monetary and credit policy, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said.
President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said recently that the economy is very close to the moment when the Fed fulfills its mandate, which is to maintain maximum employment and achieve the target level of inflation. In his opinion, the committee will continue to strive to maintain a favorable situation in the labor market, and for this, stable inflation is needed, which is now of key importance.
As for interest rates, Dudley is confident that the Fed will need a more rigid approach in this direction in the future.
During his last speech as Fed President of New York, William Dudley noted that the market's reaction to the Fed's contraction was more restrained than expected, and thanked his colleagues for the excellent work done on the way to normalizing the policy.
Colleague "in line" Robert Kaplan said at the weekend that the basic scenario of the Fed still involves 3 rate hikes this year. According to Kaplan, economic growth remains very strong this year, which is confirmed by the unemployment rate, which is below 4% and moves to the middle of the district 3%.
As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, then, most likely, in the near future, the demand for the US dollar will remain, and unsuccessful attempts to break above the resistance of 1.1620 will be another evidence of a fracture of the short-term upward trend in the euro with a further decline in the trading instrument to the 1.1520 low and 1.1440. If the buyers manage to get on the large resistance 1.1620 in the near future, the demand for risky assets may return, which will lead to the renewal of the larger areas 1.1690 and 1.1740.
Oil continues to lose ground after there was information that OPEC and oil producers outside the cartel could soon agree on an increase in oil production. Earlier this month, there were rumors that OPEC and its allies could go on easing oil production restrictions. For example. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will increase the total oil production from 500,000 - 1 million barrels per day. In the meantime, the Russian authorities want the growth in aggregate production to reach 1.5 million barrels a day.
The Japanese yen declined against the US dollar after data that Japan's foreign trade deficit widened significantly in May. Despite this, the fall in the yen will be limited due to a gradual increase in demand for safe haven assets amid the inflaming new trade war between the US and China.
According to the report, Japan's foreign trade deficit amounted to 578.3 billion yen. Economists predicted a deficit of 21 billion yen. A serious deficit was due to the growth of imports, which, compared to May of the previous year, increased by 8.1%. Exports grew by about 7.5%. The positive trade balance of Japan with the US in May compared with the same period last year fell by 17.3%, to 340.7 billion yen.
