The European currency strengthened its position against the US dollar last week. However, upward short-term potential may be under threat.
Despite the fact that the market ignored a number of reports and political events that took place this weekend, demand for the US dollar earlier this week could increase.
The decline in gold prices, which can still be observed today, indicates that a number of investors are reconsidering their portfolios in terms of new, more profitable investments. They're also thinking of an exit from the assets-shelters even against the background of the China-US trade war. The attractiveness of interest rates and the prospects for their further increase return institutional players to the market.
At the weekend, a report was published by the Institute of International Finance, which indicated that the growth of emerging economies in the second quarter of this year will be weaker compared to the first quarter. So, the indicator of growth of developing economies in May decreased and amounted to 6.1%.
As noted by the institute, the decline occurred against the background of increased tension of trade relations between the US, China, Canada, and the EU. Increase in interest rates in the US and the planned first increase since the crisis of 2008 in the euro area attracts the attention of new investors who previously preferred the assets of developing countries.
Yesterday, the annual report of the Bank for International Settlements was also published. It recommended that world central banks, in particular the United States and Europe, to not refrain from further raising interest rates and curtailing incentive programs. Fears of a surge in volatility, which the heads of banks repeatedly pointed out, according to experts of the Bank for International Settlements, do not carry a serious threat, but, on the contrary, are useful since they will make investors more cautious.
As for the US trade war with China, new measures on the part of the US became known. It is rumored that US President Donald Trump can prohibit many Chinese companies from investing in US technology firms, and also prohibit the expansion of technology exports to China. It is most likely that new measures will be announced before the end of this week.
As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, much will depend on whether euro buyers will be able to hold above the level of 1.1580 at the beginning of this week, and also break above the resistance level of 1.1670, which limits the further upside potential of risk assets. The breakthrough of this range will lead to a more powerful upward wave with a yield of 1.1710 and 1.1750 by the middle of the week.
Today, an important report on the volume of sales of housing in the primary US market will be published, which can support the US dollar.
