AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within wave 5 of the medium term downtrend - colored orange red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9833-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-1.0055-1.0105 (waves 1-2), 1.0105-0.9960-1.0021 (waves 3-4), 1.0021-0.9944-0.9992 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).
Supports:
- 0.9915 = objective point (OP), already hit
- 0.9905-0.9898 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 0.9876-67 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9813 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0255 - this wave is not developed yet.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is close to the zero level and overbought area is 15-20 pips away from the current level - 0.9940-45.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.
