NZDUSD reached earlier today the 0.7240 area where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline. Price remains inside the bullish channel from March 2020 but it feels like it is more probable to see a break down than new highs. Despite our feeling, technically trend remains bullish in the medium-term as price is still inside the bullish channel.
Blue lines - bullish medium-term channel
Black lines - Fibonacci retracements
Price has support at 0.7150 and close by is also the lower channel boundary. A break below this level will open the way for a move towards 0.69. Resistance is at the 38% Fibonacci level we tested and failed today. Bulls need to push above the 38% Fibonacci level otherwise there is high risk of breaking the support. At current price levels we prefer to be neutral and wait to see if support fails to hold. If support fails to hold we turn aggressively bearish looking for a move at least towards 0.69.
