Last Thursday there was a test of the monthly short-term of September, which led to the emergence of a major proposal and the formation of a reversal of the medium-term model the next day.
Friday's decline allowed the pair to gain a foothold below the NKZ 1/2 1.3177-1.3165, which indicates the formation of a reversal model. The first goal of the fall was achieved on the same day, which suggests the emergence of demand for the weekly shortage of 1.3057-1.3033. Just below this zone is a significant support level of 1.3030, which further increases the likelihood of demand. It is important to understand that while the pair is trading above the weekly short-term, the main phase of trading will be the medium-term flat.
Any growth from the current levels will be corrective, as the probability of the last week's lowest retest is 70%. This should be taken into account when building an intraday plan.
To confirm the further decline, it will be necessary to close one of the US sessions below the level of 1.3033. This will allow us to consider the decrease to the next target zone of NCH 1/2 1.2913-1.2901. To cancel the downward movement will require the breakdown of the low of the previous week and the absorption of Friday's decline. The probability of forming this model is close to 30%, which does not allow to consider it in your trading plan for Monday.
Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
