The upward movement of September remains a medium-term momentum, which allows considering any depreciation as an opportunity to search for purchases. The current week is no exception.
Yesterday's movement was a continuation of the medium-term bullish momentum. The main plan at the beginning of this week is holding the long position open last week. The first goal of growth is the monthly control zone of September. Upon reaching this zone, a commitment to either purchase in whole or in part is needed. Another important goal will be the a control zone of 113.70-113.60, located within the monthly control zone. Any depreciation should be considered for purchases until the pair has tested the monthly CP.
After a monthly test, the probability of a large supply will increase significantly, which means that you need to get rid of all purchases. The most likely is the formation of a medium-term corrective accumulation zone.
To complete the upward movement will require the absorption of yesterday's growth and the closure below the opening level of today's trading. This will be the first step towards the formation of a deep correctional or reversal model. The probability of forming this model is 30%, which does not allow to use it as the main one for inside the day. Sales of the instrument from current marks are not profitable since the probability of updating the weekly maximum is 70%.
The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.
The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.
The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
