Overview:
USD/JPY is trading with risks skewed higher. The rate is underpinned by the yen carry trades amid decreased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.3% to 15.59, although U.S. stocks closed narrowly mixed overnight with DJIA off 0.14%, S&P up 0.02%) as worries diminish over Europe's sovereign debt crisis. USD/JPY also is supported by Japan's economy minister Maehara's comment that Tokyo may intervene in the currency market even without U.S.'s consent to cap yen's strength; demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend. The following data should be taken into consideration: 23:50 GMT Japan tertiary industry index in August, September money stock, September corporate goods price index, 12:30 GMT U.S. September PPI, 13:55 GMT U.S. October University of Michigan survey of consumers (preliminary), and 16:35 GMT Fed's Lacker speech.
Preference:
Long positions above 78.25 with targets at 78.59 and 78.75 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
78.59 (Thursday's high)
78.76 (Monday's high, matching 100-day moving average)
78.88 (Oct. 5 high)
Alternative scenario:
Below 78.25 look for further downside with 78.1 and 77.95 as targets.
Support Levels:
78.10
77.94 (Thursday's low)
77.79 (Oct. 1 low)
77.43 (Sept. 28 low)
Comment:
The pair is rebounding on its support as the RSI is turning up. USD/JPY is daily positive-biased as MACD is in bullish mode, stochastics is turning bullish; bullish outside-day-range pattern completed on Thursday.
