When building trading plans, at the end of this week, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the pair went beyond the limits of the monthly short-term in December. The probability of demand and return inside the zone increases significantly.
Yesterday's news regarding changes in the interest rate on the US dollar led to strong movements in main majors. Those tools that have overcome the middle zones can form corrective patterns to return inside the range. This should be taken into account when building trading plans for today and tomorrow. The probability of a further fall of the Australian dollar in December is significantly reduced.
Purchases in the direction of return come to the fore. For purchases, it is required to form any pattern on a lower time frame. If the pair continues its downward movement and December closes below the monthly short-term, the probability of growth will increase to 90%.
An alternative model is to continue the downward movement. Sales from the current levels are no longer profitable and the pair needs to grow in order to get more favorable prices. The fall of the pair becomes a long-term impulse, so the growth should be perceived as a correction. The probability of updating the December low or its retest in the future is 70%.
Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
